Exxon Mobile - Up 25%

Will this rally be commodity driven ?

I recall that while oil was still in an uptrend and the ” pundits ” of this world were laughing at Schiff as investors went to their deaths in the financials Oil companies were silently beginning a downtrend  ahead of oil and the market. Oil is showing signs of bottoming and check out this chart of Exxon.

XOM Up 25 %

Has anybody noticed that in the last month it has double bottomed and is up by 25% of its lows ? The pattern isnt clear you can look at it as a head and shoulders or you can look at as an asecending triangle proudly on top of the mast. Its also above its 20 period MA ( acting as support ) and its 50 period MA. It may or may not have far to run but I dont wonder if the fabled smart money has been accumulating this stock ahead of a rally in oil ? Take a look at DIG , there might be another ” flush ” as the market makers shake the tree a little more but theres a very postive divergence on its MACD and volume too…  Im simply suggesting the wave 5 of 3 may not be the huge move to the downside the uber bears are praying for, if they just got short. Googles wave 5 is possible complete and there are signs of hope for the bulls in RIMM.

As far as im concerned its too late to be looking for heavy  shorts as a smaller degree wave 5 can fail and as another trader put it ” you dont want to be at the ” short ” party when the cops turn up this thing will explode and one of these rallies will stick.

While my long term outlook is bearish in the short term I will be looking for long positions to hold over the next few weeks. Of course that doesnt mean I will be long in the morning but I want to become more neutral and in the very short term manage risk through smaller positions. This market does have to prove itself to me , so , no i havent lost my marbles.

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